Everything Dies But The Patterns Remain

Half of all public companies are dead within ten years of being listed (Daepp et al., 2015). Not always bankrupt. Absorbed, broken up, dissolved. Gone either way.

The number barely moves across a century of economic regimes, technologies and continents. Firms die like organisms, on schedule, regardless of management quality. Stability this extreme is the tell. Mortality this regular is not luck. It is mathematics.

Start with mice and elephants. An elephant weighs around ten thousand times more than a shrew but burns energy per gram at a fraction of the rate. Plot metabolic rate against body mass for everything alive and the points collapse onto one curve with a three quarter exponent. Whale to hummingbird, one law (Kleiber, 1932, explained mechanically in 1997).

Bigger bodies run slower per cell and live longer as individuals. Efficiency purchased through size, paid for in tempo.

Cities break the curve beautifully. Double a city and you need less infrastructure per person while getting more of everything per person, wages, patents, restaurants, crime, roughly fifteen percent more each time, everywhere on Earth, across history (Bettencourt et al., 2007). Size accelerates social life instead of slowing it. Cities behave less like organisms and more like reactions.

Companies sit in between. They scale like organisms, sublinearly, which is why growth by merger so often produces less than the sum of the parts. And they die like organisms too. Of the twelve companies in the original 1896 Dow index, zero remain under their original identity. General Electric, the last survivor, left in 2018 after one hundred twenty six years. Even monuments have actuarial tables.

Why does the math demand it? Because any growing system inside finite walls runs its bill up regardless of virtue. The conservative institution dies a slow death, refusing to pay the renewal premium until the premium is all that is left owing. The radical one dies fast, because most revolutions fail. A social network can spend tens of billions chasing a metaverse nobody asked for yet and stagger out the other side lighter. Too early costs the same as wrong. Reality stays messier than the theory, every time, so neither pure type survives. Survival lives on a narrow ridge between forcing and releasing, which the Taoists mapped centuries ago and called walking the line. Change is inevitable because every point off the ridge drains, and no point on it holds forever.

What survives the dying is the interesting part.

The corporation dissolves. Incorporation persists. Bodies fail. Symmetry carries on into new bodies. Empires collapse and taxation reappears by breakfast. The embodiments burn through like tissue paper while what they embodied strolls on untouched, putting on the next costume.

This is what I hunt. The immortals. Not the organisations, not the names on buildings. The axioms underneath, the patterns that survive every embodiment they wear. That hunt has an older name. It is a search for God, conducted with inventory instead of prayer.

Take it one step further down and it turns personal. Perhaps life in its purest form is pattern making itself, each life lived unique even if the pattern underneath is single. Hindu philosophy drew this first, one self behind a billion faces, every person a mask worn by the same wearer. Perfect justice by any measure. Most people hate it anyway, and I understand why. The urge to be separate runs deep. Maybe that urge is the source of suffering. Maybe it is exactly what allows anything to come after, the friction that grinds out all the beauty and complexity that made us. Possibly both, which would make separation the most expensive gift ever given.

The patterns will outlive us and begin forming patterns of their own, combinations too deep for us to follow. Some may already exist, running right now, incomprehensible to the cells they are partly made of.

We are patterns the universe ran to see what would happen.

Some of us were old enough to be gods already, and none of us can tell.

Sources

  • Daepp, Hamilton, West and Bettencourt, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2015, the mortality of companies
  • Kleiber, Hilgardia, 1932, body size and metabolism
  • West, Brown and Enquist, Science, 1997, a general model for the origin of allometric scaling laws
  • Bettencourt et al., PNAS, 2007, growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities
  • West, Scale, 2017